It’s a good time to be a seller in Phoenix. The sellers market we’ve been experiencing since the beginning of the year is carrying on into the summer. Overall, home values in Phoenix and our surrounding cities are averaging 5.6% annual appreciation with a high demand for updated & move-in ready homes.
We are still in a market where demand exceeds supply and any change in the balance is quite small. In fact we have seen the most stable readings for the Cromford® Market Index* over the last 5 months that we have seen for any 5 month period since 2001.
We have a stable and healthy market in which prices continue to climb well in excess of inflation except in a few isolated areas among the more expensive parts of the valley. At the moment there is little sign of change.
There are a few changes going on the market nevertheless:
- townhouse / condo homes are gaining market share over single-family detached homes
- new homes are gaining market share over re-sales
- supply is dropping faster in Pinal County than Maricopa County
- sales volume is picking up in several of the more expensive areas
- sales volume is dropping in the lowest price ranges, mainly due to the lack of available supply
For a detailed breakdown on the market conditions in your area and how they may impact your goals to buy or sell, contact Carmelle AZ Homes at Info@CarmelleAZHomes.com or call 480-648-9253.
*The Cromford Market Index (image above) is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyers market, while values above 100 indicate a seller’s market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.
June 12 – The Cromford report published a broad comparison of the different regions within the Greater Phoenix area to compare how they have changed over the last year and since last month. The two key measures used are days of inventory and quarterly average price per sq. ft. The focus is on the single-family market since the condo/townhouse market is very small in a couple of these broader areas.
|Region||Days of Inventory June 2016||Days of Inventory May 2017||Days of Inventory June 2017||Annual Change||Quarterly Average $/SF May 2016||Quarterly Average $/SF May 2017||Annual Change|
|Phoenix & North Valley||93||87||83||-10.7%||$147.21||$153.95||+4.6%|
The Northeast Valley (North Phoenix, Scottsdale, Cave Creek, Carefree, Fountain Hills) has improved its pricing noticeably over the last 2 months, but we caution that the “third quarter effect”, where pricing weakens between June and September, is more pronounced for the luxury market than for other price ranges.
Note that Pinal County has shown the largest decline in days of inventory and hence the biggest swing in favor of sellers.
The West Valley (Glendale, Peoria, Surprise, Avondale, Goodyear) has seen the smallest swing, but it is still in favor of sellers and it was already a strong seller’s market in June 2016.
The Southeast Valley (Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, Mesa, Queen Creek) has seen the second biggest swing in favor of sellers, but note that it is the only area that did not improve for sellers between May 2017 and June 2017.
Days of inventory is a leading indicator of the market whereas quarterly average $/SF is very much a trailing indicator.
Long Term Price Trends
*This table ranks the cities by their annual average sales price per square foot. Only single family detached homes are included in these numbers. Information for the 12 major and 17 secondary cities is current as of the date shown. Data for the 14 small cities is updated on a monthly basis, and is measured on the 13th of each month.
The primary function of this table is to show the least and most affordable areas in the Phoenix metropolitan area together with longer term pricing trends.
Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Real Estate Analyst with The Cromford Report. Shared with permission of Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC ©2017.