Your look at what’s happening in residential real estate in Phoenix and the East Valley.
This month, low inventory continues to plague the East Valley giving sellers a major advantage in the market. Some relief may be on the way as new home construction permits reached their highest levels since June 2007.
Market Summary | Greater Phoenix | August 2018
Here are the ARMLS numbers as of August 2nd, 2018 compared to August 2nd, 2017 for Greater Phoenix (all areas and property types).
Active Listings: 15,686 versus 17,412 last year – down 9.9%
Monthly Sales: 8,533 vs 8,024 last year – down 6.3%
Monthly Avg. Sales Price/Square Foot: $160.69 versus $148.75 last year – up 8.0%
Monthly Median Sales Price: $265,000 versus $242,000 last year – up 9.5%
Market Commentary by Michael Orr with The Cromford Report
The supply of active listings without a contract dropped 2.6% during the month of July. The fall in supply was greatest at the top end of the market, and homes with active listings over $600,000 fell by 9.5%.
The sales count for July 2018 looks very strong, up 6.3% from last year, but this is mostly due to July 2018 having 21 working days, a 5% advantage over July 2017. After adjusting for this, we still see a 1.3% advantage for July 2018, an improvement over the flat result from a similar analysis last month.
Above $300,000, sales were 27% higher than a year ago reflecting much stronger activity at the mid and high end of the market. Only the very top, over $3 million, had a weak month in July. Below $300,000, sales were down 5%, largely due to insufficient supply of homes under $200,000.
The strong sales number halted the decline in the annual sales rate and took it slightly higher again.
Pricing was noticeably weaker in July, but followers of the Cromford Report, know to expect this in July every year. It does not reflect any weakness in price pressure, and is merely a seasonal effect.
The balance between supply and demand still favors sellers almost everywhere. However there was a major swing in favor of sellers in the Northeast Valley during July. The rest of the valley saw a mild movement in favor of buyers, mainly thanks to a slight easing of demand, but this was nowhere near enough to wipe out the sellers’ big advantage, one they have enjoyed since 2014. It will take a strong increase in supply to rebalance the market and in July new listing counts were slightly weaker than expected, so there is no sign as yet of any serious change in favor of buyers.
Shared with permission of The Cromford Report
City Snapshots | East Valley | August 2018
Here’s a closer look at the numbers for the residential resale market as of August 2nd, 2018 compared to August 2nd, 2017 in the following cities (single family homes only). Active listings for sale fell across the East Valley, pushing prices higher and making life harder for buyers.
Active Listings: 1,758 versus 2,039 last year – down 13.8%
Monthly Sales: 484 vs 425 last year – up 13.9%
Annual Avg. Sales Price/Square Foot: $250.67 versus $239.36 last year – up 4.7%
Annual Median Sales Price: $550,000 versus $515,000 last year – up 6.8%
Days on Market (monthly sales): 109 versus 120 last year – down 9.2%
Active Listings: 3,495 versus 3,731 last year – down 6.3%
Monthly Sales: 1,597 vs 1,450 last year – up 10.1%
Annual Avg. Sales Price/Square Foot: $164.20 versus $153.13 last year – up 7.2%
Annual Median Sales Price: $257,000 versus $236,000 last year – up 8.9%
Days on Market (monthly sales): 54 versus 58 last year – down 6.9%
Active Listings: 266 versus 275 last year – down 3.3%
Monthly Sales: 69 versus 69 last year – no change
Annual Avg. Sales Price/Square Foot: $197.86 versus $184.64 last year – up 7.2%
Annual Median Sales Price: $455,000 versus $438,500 – up 3.8%
Days on Market (monthly sales): 111 versus 88 last year – up 26.1%
Active Listings: 187 versus 243 last year – down 23.1%
Monthly Sales: 45 vs 33 last year – up 36.4%
Annual Avg. Sales Price/Square Foot: $210.45 versus $200.82 last year – up 4.8%
Annual Median Sales Price: $469,900 versus $439,950 last year – up 6.8%
Days on Market (monthly sales): 106 versus 155 last year – down 31.6%
Active Listings: 264 versus 300 last year – down 12%
Monthly Sales: 32 versus 37 last year – down 13.5%
Annual Avg. Sales Price/Square Foot: $374.65 versus $351.37 last year – up 6.6%
Annual Median Sales Price: $1,705,000 versus $1,425,000 – up 19.7%
Days on Market (monthly sales): 219 versus 192 last year – up 14.1%
Active Listings: 678 versus 776 last year – down 12.6%
Monthly Sales: 409 versus 416 last year – down 1.7%
Annual Avg. Sales Price/Square Foot: $161.49 versus $151.30 last year – up 6.7%
Annual Median Sales Price: $319,000 versus $297,000 – up 7.4%
Days on Market (monthly sales): 44 versus 56 last year – down 21.4%
Active Listings: 785 versus 910 last year – down 13.7%
Monthly Sales: 522 versus 481 last year – up 8.5%
Annual Avg. Sales Price/Square Foot: $151.67 versus $142.06 last year – up 6.8%
Annual Median Sales Price: $320,000 versus $295,000 – up 8.5%
Days on Market (monthly sales): 43 versus 57 last year – down 24.6%
Active Listings: 264 versus 332 last year – down 20.5%
Monthly Sales: 127 vs 154 last year – down 17.5%
Annual Avg. Sales Price/Square Foot: $170.75 versus $161.11 last year – up 6.0%
Annual Median Sales Price: $300,007 versus $280,000 last year – up 7.2%
Days on Market (monthly sales): 52 versus 50 last year – up 4.0%
Active Listings: 1,098 versus 1,198 last year – down 8.4%
Monthly Sales: 656 versus 643 last year – up 2%
Annual Avg. Sales Price/Square Foot: $147.44 versus $136.73 last year – up 7.8%
Annual Sales Price: $260,000 versus $240,000 – up 8.3%
Days on Market (monthly sales): 45 versus 56 last year – down 19.7%
To learn more about the market conditions in your area or for more information about buying or selling a home, please contact us at 480-648-9253 or at Info@CarmelleAZHomes.com
Data and commentary shared with permission by The Cromford Report®
Single Family Home Permits For New Construction
July 30 – The month of June was the busiest for new single-family home permits since June 2007, 11 years ago. The Census Bureau reported a total of 2,307 for Maricopa and Pinal counties combined, and 3,056 for the State of Arizona as a whole.
The latest number represents an increase of 28% from a year ago. Clearly developers are planning to build at a faster rate and the 12 month rolling average has reached 21,785, the highest since February 2008.
The top 10 locations for 2018 year to date are:
- Phoenix – 1,942
- Unincorporated Pinal County -1,272
- Buckeye – 1,104
- Mesa – 835
- Gilbert – 830
- Goodyear – 778
- Surprise – 761
- Maricopa – 741
- Peoria – 722
- Queen Creek – 630
Commentary shared with permission of the Cromford Report®
City Rankings – Annual Average Price Per Square Foot
This table ranks the cities by their annual average sales price per square foot. Only single family detached homes are included in these numbers. Information for the 12 major and 17 secondary cities is current as of the date shown. Data for the 14 small cities is updated on a monthly basis, and is measured on the 13th of each month.
The primary function of this table is to show the least and most affordable areas in the Phoenix metropolitan area together with longer term pricing trends.
Commentary shared with permission of the Cromford Report®
Thinking of buying or selling a home in the East Valley?
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If we can be of any assistance or answer any questions you may have, please don’t hesitate to contact us 480-648-9253 or at Info@CarmelleAZHomes.com.
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